NFC West
The most stable quarterback position in this division belongs to the 49ers, who are starting Alex Smith. Seriously, that's what we're looking at here. Basically, it comes down to this: you have three potential "step-up" guys at the position. Bradford, Whitehurst (after Hasselbeck gets hurt) and Max Hall (after Anderson gets benched). If you think any one of these three has a breakout year, you pick that team to take the division. If not, you pick the Niners to win it by default.The other interesting note here is that this year the NFC West and AFC West play one another. That cuts down on really brutal travel dates and pads everybody's schedules with more mediocre teams. Basically, if any of these teams turns out to be halfway decent they could coast to ten or even eleven wins. Then lose at home in the first round to a feisty wild card team that gets hot down the stretch. Watch for it.
The Seattle Seahawks
Total wins: 7Division: 9-2
Super Bowl Exelvy: 100-1
You guys all remember the Pete Carroll reigns in Boston and Jersey, right? Three years, 24-24, fired. Done it before and he'll do it again. Already stocking up on ex-Trojans who couldn't quite cut it at the pro level elsewhere, like perennial attitude problem Mike Williams. Check your voicemail, Leinart. That strategy worked so well for Steve Spurrier, so why not?
Nothing about their schedule jumps out at me, other than the NFCS games being oddly backloaded; the first one is @NO on 21 Nov. Everything about this team looks 8-8, but I'm not even confident enough about that to really pick it. Over by default, but don't tell me later that I told you to bet that. Ixnay on the division, no way on the SB.
The Santa Clara Forty-Niners
Total wins: 9Division: 5-9
Super Bowl Exelvy: 25-1
Heavy bandwagon team, favoured to win the division presumably by sole virtue of their aforementioned QB stability. I always liked Smith when he came out of Utah because his reputation held that he was he was really book-smart, but I guess that's not an especially useful trait in pro football.
Their toughest obstacle is their schedule. They play NO, @Atl and Phi within their first five games, then @GB, @SD and AZ twice in their final six. Too much potential to fall into a losing streak there. These guys also look 8-8 to me. Under. I wouldn't bet any team to win this division, let alone the SB. Still, I guess I'm picking these guys for the division by default.
The Chicago Cardinals of Phoenix
Total wins: 71/2Division: 13-5
Super Bowl Exelvy: 75-1
Well, their starting QB retired and the QB-in-waiting got cut, so they’re going with a guy who couldn't hold on to the starting job in Cleveland. But hey, don't forget, they also lost their second wideout and their defense and running game were never strong points either. And yet somehow I, uh... no. If they had a nice easy stretch in the middle of the schedule I could see them getting hot, but they don't. 6-10. Under.
The Los Angeles Rams of Saint Louis
Total wins: 41/2Division: 16-1
Super Bowl Exelvy: 200-1
Poor Steven Jackson. What the hell is still doing on this team? He's a terrific back whose prime is being completely squandered. By the time this franchise is competitive again, even by the most optimistic estimates, he'll be just about ready to hit the wall. So why haven't the Rams traded him? There must be trading partners out there who would pay dearly for a premium back, and Lord knows the Rams could use as many excess draft picks as they can get. There's really no reasonable explanation for this not happening. Anyway: 4-12. Under.
NFC North
Tough interdivisional draw here: these teams will all play the AFC and NFC Easts, which boast at least three playoff contenders each. In fact every team on that slate but Buffalo is a tough out. So take your expectations for each team and knock off one or two wins.
The Minnesota Vikings
Total wins: 91/2Division: 2-1
Super Bowl Exelvy: 10-1
Sorry Pete, but I think these guys are screwed. I can't see Favre having another season like the last one, and I think it'll be too late by the time Rice gets back. Plus, and I think this bears mentioning, Favre was accused of being detached from his teammates in his final seasons with the Pack and one year with the Jets. Then last year he's one of the boys again. Well of course he was; the team was winning. Will he be everybody's favourite uncle when they lose three in a row? Supposedly Favre finally got dragged back up north from his farm by his three best friends on the team, one from each unit: Jared Allen (D), Steve Hutchinson (O) and Ryan Longwell (ST). What's the common thread there? Favre's best friends on the team are old white guys. The majority of NFL players are not. I just think that Favre's inability to connect with his teammates on any meaningful level off the field has the potential to become a glaring lack once the good times grind down, which they never did last year. Watch this one. 8-8 at best, maybe worse, definitely under. I don't even think they'll come in second.
The Green Bay Packers
Total wins: 10Division: 4-7
Super Bowl Exelvy: 7-1
Everybody expects these guys to waltz to a division title and I'm no exception. Given my expectations for a collapse in MN, that leaves them with exactly no competition. The aforementioned division pairings make the schedule a little tougher, but let's face it, this is an elite team that should have no trouble handling mid-level wild card contenders like Mia and NYG (both at Lambeau). 11-5, maybe even 12-4, over. Take those division odds, too. They'll win it by a resting-starters-in-December margin. I even like those SB odds.
The Chicago Bears
Total wins: 71/2Division: 6-1
Super Bowl Exelvy: 40-1
Don't believe the hype. Yes, Mike Martz will install an up-tempo, pass-heavy attack, but that just means Cutler will have more chances to throw interceptions. Everything about this team says mediocrity, but I think a brutal stretch at the end of the schedule dooms them. I'm thinking 5-5 with playoff hopes alive after Thanksgiving, but Phi, @Det, NE, @MN, NYJ, @GB has serious 1-5 potential. Under.
The Detroit Lions
Total wins: 51/2Division: 18-1
Super Bowl Exelvy: 100-1
I'm optimistic about this team. QB should be better, good rookie RB, top-tier number one WR, mid-level upgrades throughout the defense. They'll fall behind early just because they get all three divisional road games in the first four weeks, but if their coach can hold them together they could scratch out six wins. Maybe. Over.
NFC South
Every time I read about this division I am reminded that no team has ever won it two years in a row. I say Atlanta continues that trend this year. Not mentioned as often: all four teams have made the SB within the last twelve years. Probably meaningless.
The New Orleans Saints
Total wins: 101/2Division: 1-2
Super Bowl Exelvy: 7-1
When you get down to it, this team has a great QB, just-above- to just-below-average everything else, and no glaring weaknesses. Add to that a strong coaching staff and... well that's how far a great QB can take you. Everything else is just filling in the blanks. My point is that the Saints had a great season last year but they don't look dominant for the long haul. They didn't even look great at this time last year; they just had a great season. And I'm not trying to take an ounce of that away from them, I'm just saying this team is not a dynasty and will most likely regress to the mean this year. They might start hot, but I think their home game against Atl week 3 shows who's the stronger team this year. You can bet that game early, by the way. Falcs are getting 61/2. Take it. Anyway, Saints: 10-6, under.
The Atlanta Falcons
Total wins: 91/2Division: 19-10
Super Bowl Exelvy: 20-1
Not a radically different team than the Saints, really. Everybody's decent, nobody's great. Saints have the edge at QB, obviously, and head coach. Falcs get the edge in O-line continuity, though, and that's a hidden factor that can make a huge difference. Bounce-back year for Ryan, off year for NO, division title at 11-5. Over.
The Tampa Buccaneers
Total wins: 51/2Division: 15-1
Super Bowl Exelvy: 200-1
I'm gonna go ahead and call this team the biggest mess in the league. Buf's sort of reliably crappy, Det's finally putting some pieces together, StL at least seems to have a plan in place, Cle's got Holmgren in the driver's seat... what the hell is TB doing? Did you know Raheem Morris still hasn't hired a defensive coordinator? Think for a minute: how many players on this team were drafted in your fantasy league? Maybe Caddy Williams, maybe Kellen Winslow, definitely no wideouts. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that this team is not only terrible this year, I think they'll be terrible the following year as well. Write it down. 3-13, under.
The Charlotte Panthers
Total wins: 7Division: 10-1
Super Bowl Exelvy: 75-1
This team went 8-8 last year. Their only major roster loss is Julius Peppers, who was overrated anyway. They lost a bunch of mid-level free agents on defense and added several more to replace them. They still have two solid running backs, one great wideout, a top-notch o-line and good coach. The one thing you can say for sure is that, with the departure of Jake Delhomme, they are almost certain to commit fewer turnovers this year. They won't be great, but I just can't see them being much worse than 8-8. Over.
NFC East
A monstrous division at first glance, in which all four teams could not only win it but even win a playoff game or two. But close inspection reveals potential cracks in each. I have no idea who will win it, but I think it won't be Dallas. That's just too easy. I'm gonna go out on a limb and pick the 'Skins, for three reasons: (a) McNabb bias; I've always liked the guy; (b) best odds, so if they do win it's a decent payoff; and (c) why not? Are the other teams that much better? Every year there's a surprise team or two. You can't tell me there's no chance it'll be DC this year.The Dallas Cowboys of America
Total wins: 10Division: 1-1
Super Bowl Exelvy: 8-1
Because Wade Phillips isn't as bad as his rep, but just isn't good enough. Williams and Bryant makes two nutjobs at wideout. Because Jerry Jones has been announcing his own plan for the RB rotation in interviews. Because there's uncertainly at he kicker position, which is just asking for at least one close lost on a missed field goal. But for one reason more than any other: because Tony Romo has a terrific golf handicap. And if he spends that much time on the links, he doesn't spend enough in the film room. 9-7, under. Merry Christmas, Wade. Here's your pink slip.
The Redskins of Columbia
Total wins: 71/2Division: 6-1
Super Bowl Exelvy: 30-1
So much to like here. I just think all the new parts fit nicely. The two main backs (Fast Willie got cut) may be on the downside, but the coach is great at splitting carries, and that'll keep everybody healthy. The OLT's a rookie, but the QB still moves outside the pocket well. Plus he's well-suited to the coach's offense. Most of all I just think this is the one team in the division that doesn't look like they're about to take a step back. 10-6, over for my favourite bet of the preseason.
The Philadelphia Eagles
Total wins: 81/2Division: 14-5
Super Bowl Exelvy: 30-1
It's hard to really bet against Andy Reid. Say what you will about his clock management (and many have), but his teams are always well-prepared and competitive. The guy seems to know what he's doing on a year to year basis. That's why I feel like giving him the benefit of the doubt on the QB switch. The Iggs finally have solid young skill guys on offense, which McNabb got by without for years. I have no trouble believing that Reid can go 10-6 with his new QB and the same old stalwart defense. Over.
The New Meadowlands Giants
Total wins: 81/2
Division: 14-5
Super Bowl Exelvy: 20-1
When the going got rough last year these guys really started to look like a team that was tuning out the coach, which is a worrying sign going forward. They were pretty banged-up last year, especially on D-line, which has been the team's biggest strength in the Coughlin era. But most of the guys who got hurt are still under 30, so that was probably a fluke, not a sign of a veteran team in physical decline. It's more the O-line they need to worry about, at least as far as age goes. Other than that... good QB with solid wideouts, more reloading on the D-line in the draft, proven coach... why does this look like an 8-8 team? I can't explain it, but my gut says under and I see no reason not to trust it.
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